Will Arvind Kejriwal benefit from resignation gamble?

Arvind Kejriwal, the outgoing Chief Minister of Delhi, is at a critical juncture in his political career. The Supreme Court ruling barring him from attending office and signing official files has forced him to consider resigning and appointing a trusted successor to govern on his behalf. This move carries significant risks but also offers potential high rewards.
Kejriwal’s successor, who will inevitably be hand-picked for loyalty and competence, will operate under his indirect supervision. This strategy allows Kejriwal to maintain administrative control, presenting him as a leader who continues to get work done despite alleged political sabotage by the opposition and investigative agencies such as the CBI and Enforcement Directorate.
One of the new cabinet’s immediate priorities, under Kejriwal’s direction, is expected to be the implementation of the Rs 1,000 per month scheme for women in Delhi. If the Lieutenant Governor obstructs this initiative, it could allow Kejriwal’s government to portray the central administration as a hindrance to state progress, thereby garnering public sympathy.
A special session of the Delhi Assembly may be convened to pass a confidence motion, underscoring legislative support. This would also give Kejriwal a platform to outline the future policy direction, setting the stage for the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections. The announcement of additional popular schemes during this period could help consolidate voter support.
Resigning could allow Kejriwal to adopt a high moral stance, positioning himself as a political martyr who relinquished power despite a favorable Supreme Court ruling. This narrative could resonate with the electorate, portraying him as a staunch advocate of justice and transparency.
While bold, Kejriwal’s resignation gamble carries significant risks, potentially impacting both the Delhi government and the Aam Aadmi Party’s political future. The consequences are complex, affecting both internal party dynamics and external political challenges.
The immediate challenge is in Haryana, where AAP is contesting all 90 assembly seats. This is a formidable task, given the party’s weaker organizational structure compared to its strongholds in Delhi and Punjab.
It is Kejriwal’s first major political challenge since his release from jail, and the stakes are high. Failure in his home state could significantly undermine his influence and give the opposition an opportunity to criticise his leadership, especially considering that his “magic” and sympathy appeal failed during the previous Lok Sabha elections when AAP won no seats in both Delhi and Haryana.
Delhi presents its own set of challenges. Kejriwal understands that the timing of the Delhi Assembly elections is crucial. Delaying the elections could erode the sympathy advantage he currently holds. The longer the delay, the harder it will be to capitalise on this sentiment.
Regardless of who the next Chief Minister is, the ultimate responsibility for delivering results will rest on Kejriwal, maintaining high expectations from both his party and the public.
Another significant risk is the appointment of anyone other than Kejriwal as Chief Minister. Even if the chosen individual is trusted by Kejriwal, Delhi’s complex government model requires cooperation with the Lieutenant Governor and the central government.
There is a possibility that these entities might work more harmoniously with the new chief minister, subtly suggesting that past conflicts were due to Kejriwal’s leadership style. This could damage Kejriwal’s reputation and weaken AAP’s standing.